jb

If you have a set of trips and another player has a higher set of trips, fold. This is probably the absolute worst, (rational,) play in all of poker, although most people will not fold a lower set of trips. Lets examine an example. On 5 th street you have trip sevens and none of your other cards are showing. Player B has trip nines showing. When the 3 rd nine hit the board your hand became a draw hand. If player B bets, you should fold. Both of you have exactly the same chance of improving your hand. So lets look just at your outs: You have two cards that can pair giving you a Fullhouse, and you have the 4 th card of your trips for 7 outs. Your chances of improving are 7 out of the remaining cards, if none of your outs are exposed. You win 7 times and lose the (outstanding cards-7) times. For your opponent the odds of improvement are the same, only apply to the 6 times that you improve to a Fullhouse. Of those 6 improvements he will win 7 times and lose the (outstanding cards-7). Let’s do some numbers.

Heads up form 3 rd Street, (7 player game). Known cards =3+5+1+2+2=13. There are 39 outstanding cards. The chance of you improving your hand are 7:32 or ~1:4.5 for. You win 2 lose 9, if your hand does not improve. Of those two you win. He improves at the same rate. So if you improve, he will improve and beat your Fullhouse ~1:4.5 hands. This reduces your win rate to ~1.5:9 or 1 out of 7 times. In a heads up situation you can never get the 6:1 pot odds needed to make this call. The odds of improving a flush or outside straight are better. Would you call with a straight draw?